Chapter 06 / Pipeline math
Last updated: Published by Tim Kilroy
Divide your quarterly revenue goal by your average deal size, then by your close rate and your proposal rate, and spread the result over 13 weeks: that is your weekly conversation number. This Agency Coach FAQ calculator does the arithmetic using the formula Tim Kilroy teaches in his 2026 planning workshop.
It depends on four numbers: your quarterly goal, average deal size, close rate and proposal rate. Tim Kilroy's point is that revenue comes from a small number of real conversations with people who have a short path to yes or no, so the useful target is a weekly count of those conversations, not a vague sense of being busy.
The formula comes from Tim Kilroy's 2026 planning workshop. In the Agency Coach FAQ we round each step up, because you cannot close part of a deal.
Pick one constraint to fix this quarter. Tim Kilroy names three: not enough conversations, conversations not turning into proposals, or proposals not closing. Improve one at a time. If your weekly number looks impossible, the lever is usually not more hustle. It is better qualification, which lifts your proposal and close rates, or a sharper position that lifts your deal size.
A conversation only counts if it is real: a person with a problem and a short path to a decision. See qualifying the prospect for how to tell, read agency discovery questions to lift your proposal rate, or return to the agency coach FAQ.
Usually because new business depends on referrals or a single channel, and the funnel is not measured. Tim Kilroy's Leak Test: pull the last 90 days, count prospects at each of five stages, and calculate conversion between stages to find the biggest leak. Only 14% of agencies call their pipeline very healthy, per SparkToro's 2025 report cited by Haus Advisors.
The first step is agreeing out loud that there is a real problem worth paying to solve. In Tim Kilroy's five-stage agency funnel, a prospect counts as qualified only when both sides agree the problem is real, it is worth money, and the person you are talking to decides, and when you can name the problem in their words.
Because interest fades quickly. Landbase's roundup of lead qualification statistics reports that responding within one hour generates 7x higher qualification odds. For agency owners who sell between client work, that argues for a simple habit: acknowledge every genuine inquiry within the hour, even if the full conversation happens later.
Often because the discovery call was really a pitch, so the proposal was generic. Tim Kilroy says he has this coaching conversation about twice a month: the agency describes its process and case studies but cannot say what it learned about the prospect's business. Late or bland follow-up is the other common cause.
Name your biggest constraint first: positioning, pipeline, conversion or delivery. Then reach Tim Kilroy through the contact page on timkilroy.com. If you are not sure where the problem is, the WTF Assessment on his site is a two-minute diagnostic designed to show where an agency is stuck and which tools to use first.
Tim Kilroy coaches owners of marketing, creative, PR and other service agencies on positioning, pipeline and sales. Tell him what is going on, and he will help you find what to fix first.
